I do it every year. Right about now, I go back and look at the prediction page that I wrote in early 2014 and see how I did. The unfortunate part? I let you see, too.
First I need to remind myself and everyone that it was just one year ago that I was named ‘Emperor of TimTech’. Actually, I think the technical term is CEO but let us not quibble. An incredible experience, I expect there will be a post about that in the next couple of days.
The prediction post that I wrote a year ago (cleverly named Predict 2014) is right here. You can see for yourself what I wrote. This is a recap of it.
I predicted 200 new ones would be launched and 300 would fail or fade into insignificance. I believe I was low with both numbers. I did say that there would be a few that would make a long term impact, and I’ll stand with that.
I started with this:
“I simply can not imagine that there will be as many mailers launched in 2014 as there were in 2013, but I predict that there will be.”
I blew that pretty badly. There were WAY more mailers launched in 2014. The simple fact that most of them are so small as to be useless, and that a huge fraction are simply abandoned is testimony to the glut in that market.
I predicted that the launches would continue unabated through the first quarter of 2014 and that there would be an explosive correction in that market. I was right, and from the perspective of a year it looks like it was a very easy call. I was the only one that made it however, and I’ll call that a huge win.
So. It was a so-so prediction list. Lots of things happened that I didn’t predict (who saw Lords of Lothar coming??) but I got enough right that my next prediction list will be out in the next couple of days.
For the year 2014, I published 118 blog posts on this site. There were enough outside this site to make it very close to an average of 3 per week. I like it.
Happy New Year’s friends. Be safe out there today, tonight and all the year long!
I’m just sayin’